The following parameters are incorporated into this model, based on clinical experience and research:

Baseline Frequency – How often migraines naturally occur without sensitization (e.g. 1 every 30 days).

Sensitization Factor – How strongly each dose shortens the time until the next migraine (or the strength of its sensitization effect). A factor of 1.5 means each dose increases frequency by 50%.

Dosing Frequency – the proportion of attacks where the drug is taken (every migraine, every other migraine, etc.).

Decay Factor – The interval over which a return to baseline frequency occurs in the absence of further sensitization via medication use.

• This is currently fixed at 180 days, based on studies showing that full recovery from rebound headaches typically takes about 6 months.
• However, this is likely an underestimate of the true time to recover from sensitization in some cases, especially when the drug is used frequently, in high doses, or over long durations.
• In reality, the decay trajectory likely varies by drug type, dose, frequency, and individual sensitivity — but due to limited data, a fixed decay model is used for now.

Dosing Limit – A cap on how often the drug can be taken (e.g., no more than 2x/week).

Changing Baseline – Models what happens if the person’s underlying migraine risk improves over time (e.g., from lifestyle changes).